Raphinha owners do not need to wait for a late fitness test. Hansi Flick has confirmed that the Barcelona midfielder will miss the trip to Galatasaray, so the decision is not whether to sell. It is where to move the €9.5m.
My preferred replacement is Lamine Yamal if the extra €0.5m is available. Michael Olise is the best alternative for managers who want a stronger Tuesday captaincy option, while Bukayo Saka and Dominik Szoboszlai offer two very different ways to spread the money.
The Matchday 2 deadline is Tuesday 13 October at 17:45 BST. Here is how I would rank the replacements.
The short answer
- Lamine Yamal (€10.0m): best direct premium replacement
- Michael Olise (€9.0m): best replacement for captaincy upside
- Bukayo Saka (€8.5m): best aggressive alternative
- Dominik Szoboszlai (€7.0m): best value move
- Nicolás Paz (€7.0m): best medium-term alternative
1. Lamine Yamal: the best direct replacement
Yamal is the cleanest move because it keeps a place in Barcelona's attack while shifting the money to the player most likely to absorb Raphinha's creative responsibility.
The 19-year-old scored 15 Fantasy points against Feyenoord with a goal, two assists and the bonus point for scoring from outside the box. Across his ten appearances for Barcelona and Spain before this weekend, UEFA recorded 19 goal involvements: 12 goals and seven assists.
The fixture is built for attacking returns. Barcelona's last 31 Champions League matches have produced 141 goals, an average of 4.55 per game. Their lack of a clean sheet in 16 successive European matches is a warning against the defence, but it does not reduce Yamal's appeal. If anything, it increases the chance that Barcelona need more than one goal to win.
At €10.0m, Yamal requires another €0.5m beyond the Raphinha sale. That is worth finding if it does not weaken the rest of the team. He offers elite form, secure minutes when fit and a genuine Tuesday captaincy route.
Verdict: Buy. He is the best option for managers who want to stay invested in Barcelona.
2. Michael Olise: the best captaincy move
Olise is not merely a replacement. He may be the strongest midfielder in the entire round.
His Matchday 1 performance was spectacular: two goals, an assist, Player of the Match and 21 Fantasy points against Bodø/Glimt. UEFA's captaincy preview then credited him with seven goals and three assists across his next five club and international appearances.
Bayern now travel to Viking. The Norwegian side's previous 11 UEFA matches produced 47 goals, while Bayern have scored at least four in five of their last seven Champions League games. Harry Kane remains the safest captain in that fixture, but Olise receives five points per goal, can add a clean-sheet point and costs €2.0m less.
He also saves €0.5m from Raphinha, which can repair another weak position. The only concern is that his ownership has risen sharply after Matchday 1, so this is no longer a move against the crowd. That does not make it a bad move. Good points count even when other managers own them.
Verdict: Buy. Choose Olise over Yamal if the Bayern fixture and Tuesday captaincy matter more than retaining Barcelona coverage.
3. Bukayo Saka: the aggressive alternative
Saka is the most interesting option for managers who already own Olise and do not want to spend €10.0m on Yamal.
Arsenal host Lille after winning 13 consecutive Champions League league-phase matches. They have scored three or more goals in five of their last six home games at this stage, while Lille have lost their last eight away matches against English clubs.
Saka's Matchday 1 total of three points is the reason he remains overlooked, not a reason to avoid him. He had already scored three times in the Premier League before adding two goals for England during the international window. His role gives him several routes to points: goals, assists, penalties and set pieces.
At €8.5m, he releases €1.0m from Raphinha. He is also far less likely than Yamal or Olise to duplicate the structure of the most popular squads.
The downside is captaincy. Kane and Olise have the better Tuesday fixture, so Saka is more valuable as a transfer than as an armband choice.
Verdict: Buy for upside and squad differentiation. He is especially appealing if Kane already covers the Bayern attack.
4. Dominik Szoboszlai: the balanced value move
Szoboszlai turns one forced transfer into a wider squad upgrade.
The Liverpool midfielder scored 13 points against Atlético Madrid through a goal, Player of the Match and nine ball recoveries. That recovery volume matters because it gives him a route to points even when Liverpool's attacking returns are shared around.
Liverpool visit LASK, who failed to score in Matchday 1 and are winless in nine European group or league-phase matches. The fixture is good. The scheduling is less helpful: Liverpool play on Wednesday, so Szoboszlai cannot replace Raphinha as a first-day captain.
Saving €2.5m can turn a weak defender into Gabriel, fund an upgrade to Harry Kane or fix a non-playing substitute. If the rest of the squad needs work, that may produce more points than making a straight premium swap.
Verdict: Buy when the saving fixes a second problem. Do not choose him solely because he is cheaper.
5. Nicolás Paz: the longer-term option
Paz is less obvious for Matchday 2 but arguably the most interesting move beyond it.
He produced two assists, five ball recoveries and eight Fantasy points in Como's 4-1 win over Leipzig. UEFA then highlighted four goals and four assists across his following seven appearances for club and country.
Como visit Feyenoord, which is not as attractive as Bayern at Viking or Arsenal at home to Lille. The appeal is price, role and the possibility that Paz becomes a season-long value midfielder rather than a one-week punt.
At €7.0m, he releases €2.5m and keeps more money available for Matchday 3, when several premium clubs face one another.
Verdict: A good structural move, but not the best pure Matchday 2 transfer.
Which replacement suits your team?
If you do not own Olise
Buy Olise. The Viking fixture, form and captaincy ceiling make him too difficult to ignore.
If you own Olise but not Yamal
Buy Yamal if the extra €0.5m is easy to find. Barcelona's attack should run through him more heavily without Raphinha.
If you own Kane and Olise
Buy Saka. Kane already covers the best Bayern captaincy fixture, and Saka gives you a strong route into Arsenal's attack.
If you have two or more other squad problems
Buy Szoboszlai or Paz and spend the saving. A premium sideways move is less useful when the money can turn a non-starter into a reliable player.
If you plan to use a chip
Do not make the transfer first. Playing Wildcard or Limitless removes the need to sell Raphinha manually, and using a chip means no free transfer is carried into the following matchday.
Should you take a points hit?
Usually, no.
Managers have two free transfers in the league phase and can carry one. Raphinha is a clear use of a free move, but a hit only makes sense if both free transfers are already needed for more serious absences.
A four-point hit requires the new player to beat both Raphinha's replacement-level score and the player you would otherwise start. With Raphinha confirmed out, a hit is easier to justify than a normal sideways move, but the bench still matters. If your substitute is likely to play, protect the points.
My final ranking
- Yamal for the best direct replacement
- Olise for the best fixture and captaincy upside
- Saka for a more aggressive squad
- Szoboszlai when the saving improves another position
- Paz for a medium-term structure
For most managers, the real decision is Yamal versus Olise. I prefer Yamal if Kane is already in the squad. Without Kane, Olise gives you both a Raphinha replacement and access to Bayern's standout fixture.
Use the expected-points table, predicted line-ups, captain picks and transfer planner before confirming the move.