The worst UCL Fantasy transfer is often the one made to buy last week's points.
Michael Olise scored 21 in Matchday 1, Marc Bartra and Ferran Torres returned 18, Ermedin Demirović hit 17, and Ousmane Dembélé and Raphinha reached 16. Some of those hauls came from repeatable roles. Others relied on finishing that no player can sustain.
The answer is not to ignore Matchday 1. It is to separate useful evidence from a score that has already happened.
Here is my buy, hold or sell verdict on the biggest names before the Tuesday 13 October, 17:45 BST deadline.
The verdicts at a glance
- Michael Olise: buy or hold
- Marc Bartra: hold, but do not chase
- Ferran Torres: hold if expected to start, otherwise sell
- Ermedin Demirović: buy or hold
- Raphinha: sell
- Ousmane Dembélé: hold
- Lamine Yamal: buy or hold
- Serhou Guirassy: hold or buy selectively
Michael Olise: buy or hold
Olise's 21 points were extraordinary, but the reason to buy is not the total. It is the role behind it.
He scored twice, created another goal, took Player of the Match and added a clean-sheet point against Bodø/Glimt. UEFA then recorded seven goals and three assists across his following five appearances for club and country.
Bayern travel to Viking, whose previous 11 UEFA matches produced 47 goals. Bayern have scored four or more in five of their last seven Champions League games. Olise is therefore moving from one strong fixture to another rather than asking managers to chase a difficult repeat.
The only reason not to buy is squad structure. If Harry Kane already covers the fixture and the midfield needs a Raphinha replacement, Olise is excellent. If buying him blocks Kane and leaves no Wednesday captain, the move is less automatic.
Verdict: Buy or hold. He is a captaincy option, not just a Matchday 1 bandwagon.
Marc Bartra: hold, but do not chase
Bartra's two goals against Lille produced an 18-point return that no sensible projection could treat as normal.
The repeatable part is more modest and still useful. He played 90 minutes, recorded six ball recoveries and carries some threat at attacking set pieces. At €4.5m, those are respectable reasons to own him.
Real Betis host Porto in Matchday 2. The fixture is not poor, but clean-sheet confidence should be limited. Only one of Betis' previous 48 European matches finished goalless, while none of Porto's previous 31 did.
Existing owners have no urgent reason to sell. New buyers would be paying emotionally for goals that are unlikely to repeat.
Verdict: Hold. Do not spend a transfer chasing the 18 points.
Ferran Torres: hold if the start looks secure
Ferran's Matchday 1 hat-trick delivered 18 points at €7.0m. That combination of price and ceiling is difficult to dismiss.
The concern is both fixture and competition for minutes. Paris travel to Manchester City, a match that can produce goals but is not the same opportunity as Slovan Bratislava at home. Dembélé and other Paris attackers also compete for central involvement.
Ferran played 73 minutes in Matchday 1 and made them count. If the final team news points towards another start, selling before an open game could be premature. Buying him after a hat-trick, with City away next, is a different matter.
Verdict: Hold if likely to start. Sell only if the minutes become doubtful or the money funds a major upgrade.
Ermedin Demirović: buy or hold
Demirović's hat-trick was clinical, but his Matchday 2 case stands without it.
Stuttgart visit Slovan Bratislava, who conceded six to Paris and have lost all nine of their Champions League matches. At €6.0m, Demirović also solves a structural problem: he provides a credible Wednesday captain without consuming premium budget.
He played 62 minutes against Viking, so this is not a completely risk-free role. A forward does not need 90 minutes to return, but early substitutions reduce the ceiling. Check Stuttgart's final team news rather than assuming the hat-trick makes him untouchable.
Verdict: Buy or hold. He is the best value forward for this round and the strongest Wednesday captain switch.
Raphinha: sell
This is the easy one. Hansi Flick has confirmed that Raphinha will miss Barcelona's match against Galatasaray.
His 16-point Matchday 1 score and excellent domestic form are irrelevant to the immediate decision because he cannot return points from the stands. Managers have two free transfers, and one should be used here.
Lamine Yamal is the best direct replacement. Michael Olise is the better move if you want Bayern captaincy, Bukayo Saka offers a strong home fixture, and Dominik Szoboszlai creates money for a second upgrade.
Verdict: Sell. Do not preserve team value at the cost of an empty starting spot.
Ousmane Dembélé: hold
Dembélé returned 16 points with two goals and two assists against Slovan. Manchester City away is a major change in difficulty, but it is not an automatic sale.
Paris have enough attacking quality to score against anyone, and Dembélé's role gives him several routes to points. The problem is opportunity cost: spending €10.0m on a forward at City is harder to justify when Kane visits Viking and Demirović travels to Slovan.
That distinction matters. Existing owners can hold and keep a powerful Wednesday captain alternative. Non-owners do not need to force the transfer this week.
Verdict: Hold. Avoid buying unless the rest of the forward line is already settled.
Lamine Yamal: buy or hold
Yamal's 15 points came from a goal, two assists and an outside-the-box strike against Feyenoord. The underlying role is even more attractive now that Raphinha is ruled out.
UEFA recorded 19 goal involvements across Yamal's ten Barcelona and Spain appearances before this weekend. Galatasaray away carries more risk than Bayern's trip to Viking, but Barcelona's recent Champions League matches rarely stay quiet.
At €10.0m, he is expensive enough that the move should have a purpose. For Raphinha owners, it is a straightforward upgrade. For managers who already own Olise and Saka, another premium midfielder may create an unbalanced squad.
Verdict: Buy or hold. He is the best direct Raphinha replacement and a valid Tuesday captain.
Serhou Guirassy: hold or buy selectively
Guirassy scored twice for 13 points against Villarreal and now has 21 goals in his first 29 Champions League appearances. His European scoring record is repeatable evidence.
Bodø/Glimt away is not an easy fixture. The Norwegian side have won five successive European home matches including qualifying, scoring three in each. Dortmund's matches at this stage are consistently open, which creates opportunity and risk in equal measure.
Guirassy is a better hold than buy because Demirović offers a cheaper Wednesday captain and Kane has the outstanding Tuesday fixture. Managers seeking a high-variance alternative can still justify him.
Verdict: Hold. Buy only if you actively want a more aggressive Wednesday route.
What makes a Matchday 1 score repeatable?
Minutes and role
A player who starts regularly and plays close to 90 minutes receives more chances to score, assist and collect recoveries. A huge return in 60 minutes can still be brilliant, but it carries more future risk.
Penalties and set pieces
Kane's penalties and Saka's dead-ball role survive from one fixture to the next. A centre-back scoring twice does not.
Several routes to points
Olise can score, assist and gain a clean-sheet point. Szoboszlai combined a goal with nine recoveries. Bartra's recoveries offer a useful floor even when the goals disappear.
The next fixture
Last week's opponent has gone. Bayern moving from Bodø/Glimt at home to Viking away remains attractive. Paris moving from Slovan at home to Manchester City away does not.
How to use the two free transfers
Managers receive two free transfers in the league phase and can carry only one into Matchday 3.
The first priority is a confirmed absence such as Raphinha. The second should improve the captaincy, replace another non-starter or be carried. Do not spend it simply because it exists.
Prices stay fixed until the Matchday 2 deadline, so there is no need to make an early transfer to beat a rise. From Matchday 3 onwards, performances can change prices. Waiting for final team news is worth more than guessing early.
Final transfer priority
- Sell confirmed absentees, beginning with Raphinha.
- Secure a Tuesday captain from Kane, Olise or Yamal.
- Keep a Wednesday switch such as Demirović or Guirassy.
- Hold strong Matchday 1 performers when the role remains good.
- Ignore yesterday's points when the next fixture and minutes have deteriorated.
The lesson is not to avoid every player who hauled. It is to buy the role that can haul again.
Use the transfer planner, expected-points table, predicted line-ups and Matchday 2 preview before saving the team.