EXPECTED POINTS
NEXT DEADLINE
xPts assume a full 90 minutes. Check team sheets before deadline to confirm your picks are starting.
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Calculating Expected Points from 3 data sources...
● Odds API
● UCL Fantasy API
● Domestic Stats
ⓘ How the xPts model works
Each scoring action is projected independently and summed:
- Appearance: 2 pts (assumes 90 min start)
- Goals: Bayesian-shrunk goal rate from UCL & domestic data, scaled by fixture xG
- Assists: Same methodology as goals
- Clean Sheets: Bookmaker CS probability × position CS points
- Ball Recoveries: Shrunk per-90 rate, adjusted for opponent xG
- Saves (GK): Shrunk save rate scaled by opponent xG
- MOTM: Probability model using xG contribution & win probability
- Outside Box: xG × outside-box shot share
- Goals Conceded: Poisson model from opponent xG (GK/DEF penalty)
- Yellow Cards: Shrunk card rate deducted
Domestic league form is blended with UCL data via Bayesian shrinkage, giving more weight to larger samples. Injured/suspended players are multiplied by 0.02; doubtful by 0.50.